TraderBean

VIX Chart...

2012-01-24T21:27:00.000-08:00

this chart look like the most likely of scenarios...

tb

VIX nearly done...

2012-01-08T15:35:00.000-08:00

VIX Chart...

2011-09-07T20:11:00.001-07:00

Volatility...

2011-08-21T22:50:00.000-07:00

Ok, now what?

2011-08-20T22:29:00.000-07:00

There is very little on the calendar this week, as far as economic news.
However, there is a USD Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, scheduled for Friday, August 26. That should move the market direction over the next few weeks... If the results of that meeting are positive, expect a big rally, to former support lines... If the results are uneventful or negative, expect further selloff (until the good economic news is eventually announced).

If I had a crystal ball, it would say:

sell off continued monday-wednesday, followed by end of day rally on wednesday, and continuation rally on thursday.

friday news leak, market selloff (news is not good).

Following week: monday is flat, and on tuesday, market rallies, as terms are agreed to from summit, the market rallies 10%-20% over next days/weeks.

Once we reach old support (now resistance lines), we sell longs, go short for the final selloff...

tb

PS- there are 3 things I am certain of. Death, Taxes, and Market Volatility.

TWM...

2011-08-17T20:46:00.000-07:00

If you missed the entry I [posted ] a few weeks ago, there is another good entry here...sell at 90ish, 40 pts from now...

tb

SPY Chart..

2011-08-17T20:30:00.000-07:00

I was expecting a bounce higher to the upper horizonal line, but I am not sure we will get it now... last weeks bounce, may have been all she had left.. since the market is stalling, I am more cautious..

tb

200 weekly moving avg...

2011-08-13T13:00:00.000-07:00

Ah, the 200 weekly moving avg... no blog, that I am aware of, talks about this moving average as much as I do...everyone spends their time on daily and hourly charts... anyway, glad to see the 200 wma do its job..

So, I stumbled across a stock this weekend, that I think can move up big from here, and in a hurry..I like it so much, I am going to buy it this week in my 401k, perhaps as early as monday morning. Hopefully a lower open will make it easier for me to get in at a better price... the chart shows the first of a double bottom is being put in place right here. This is after 3 years of down trends...it's a low risk entry, for 20% upside in 2-3 weeks.

If your are interested, let me know and I will send you the chart...

tb

Do Charts Lie?

2011-08-10T20:12:00.000-07:00

ok, so looking at the 3 month chart (select chart to zoom in), you will see the long tail on 8/9, down to the $8 price for FAS. I think this was good news, as I have a buy order at $9.

However...

when I check the 5 day chart, it shows that price has not fallen below $12...

Ok, maybe its the charting software, or timeframe, so I ran it for 3 year chart, and on different charting software... same result... weekly chart showing a long tail to the $8 area..

so, what does this mean? well, it "shows" that it hit below $9, but since my order is still open, AND the daily chart shows no where near $9, the only conclusion I can draw, is some charts lie... at least FAS did...hmm..

tb

Buy the Dip...

2011-08-10T06:53:00.000-07:00

[short term trade]
Based on the chart above, it looks like we should be buying the dips here..
..and sell when it reaches previous support..

OR
[long term trade]
sell/short the rallies near horizontal line...
..cover when the market finally hits bottom..

tb

Market Madness...

2011-08-08T16:52:00.001-07:00

anyone notice the percentage drop on the S&P today?

tb

SPX Chart...

2011-08-07T20:06:00.000-07:00

Bounce play - X

2011-08-02T20:55:00.000-07:00

If you are looking for an oversold bounce play, give X a try.

tb

SPX Chart

2011-07-28T08:43:00.000-07:00

GOOG - 1 day wonder part 2

2011-07-17T09:40:00.000-07:00

3.5 years later....

See part 1

amazing...

tb

TWM Chart...

2011-07-13T20:34:00.000-07:00

Ultra short ETF...

tb

AA Chart

2011-07-11T07:23:00.000-07:00

The support/resistance lines when broken, reveal AA's next move..

tb

Bounce about done...

2011-07-04T11:40:00.000-07:00

Bouce?

2011-06-15T23:07:00.000-07:00

um, so much for the bounce? We have not violated support (yet)...

Bounce time...

2011-06-13T21:22:00.000-07:00

looks like the first leg down is complete. Expect a bounce here...

tb

SDS Chart...Ultra short ETF...

2011-05-15T15:06:00.000-07:00

Hello, Thanks for your inquiry about my next post..

My thoughts are still the same about the market... bearish...

price rising with MACD falling, is bearish divergence..
OR, rising MACD with falling price is bullish divergence, which is what we have in the SDS chart...SDS looks really good right about here...

I would wait for $21 to break the downtrend to the upside, before getting in...
OR
...I would wait for a final crazy selloff in SDS, to ~$15.

tb

QID Chart...

2011-04-12T09:19:00.000-07:00

Easy trade.... get in here, stop @ 50...

tb

Rising wedge preceeds falling knife...

2011-04-07T21:27:00.000-07:00

Rising wedge pattern...
Double top....
Falling MACD, crossing 0 line..
Sell in May, and go away...

tb

Volatility Chart...

2011-03-06T20:39:00.000-08:00

Buy the dip in the VXX, or sell the rallies in the S&P.

tb

One day @ a time...

2011-01-29T07:29:00.000-08:00

I try to take just one day at a time, but lately, several days have attacked me, all at once! (lol)

I am feeling the wrath of M&A.... Our company merged with another company, and now we acquired a company. Needless to say, my time available maintaining this blog is limited.

I think the Q's can take 10% off over the next few month.

If you are in PCLN, consider getting out, the MACD crossed below 0, and the price has not fallen 1 penny (yet). Remember, the FILO principal, first in, last out.

Review PCLN chart here.

I still like AMZN back to 150's, see my post back in 12/2010.

I see GOOG falling more, $625 was the big R, see my recent post, 10/2010.

tb

I have a dream...

2011-01-17T11:52:00.000-08:00

to be on the right side of the market more times than I am not...

and to, um, well, ah, let's just stop here...

tb

Anyone, on any given day...Inspirational story...

2011-01-08T17:01:00.000-08:00

PTR - Cup with handle pattern

2010-12-29T23:17:00.000-08:00

Click here

tb

PS- Happy New Year!

Volatility...

2010-12-15T11:58:00.000-08:00

Expect the unexpected... I don't know when, but the chart patterns says we are close to some major volatility...

tb

AMZN - Deja Vu?

2010-12-01T18:54:00.000-08:00

If last year is any indication, then AMZN's stock price should head lower over the next few months.. Looks like AMZN is a better buy at $150..
(Also, AMZN did not respond to the rally today).

tb

...with Thanksgiving...

2010-11-24T05:58:00.000-08:00

It's time to reflect...

In 1621, the Plymouth colonists and Wampanoag Indians shared an autumn harvest feast that is acknowledged today as one of the first Thanksgiving celebrations in the colonies. For more than two centuries, days of thanksgiving were celebrated by individual colonies and states. It wasn't until 1863, in the midst of the Civil War, that President Abraham Lincoln proclaimed a national Thanksgiving Day to be held each November. Thanksgiving was proclaimed by every president after Lincoln, and in 1941, Thanksgiving was finally sanctioned by Congress as a legal holiday, as the fourth Thursday in November.

We all have a great deal to be thankful for – our health, family, friends. This is one of those weeks where we can focus more on the family and friends side of the work/life balance equation.

tb

Lump of coal trade...

2010-11-20T11:57:00.000-08:00

I posted 15 days ago about ACI.. but, the stock continued to run to 30ish after my post, so I sat on the sides and watched... The past few weeks, both the INDU pulled back to 11,000, and ACI pulled back to 27.50. Perfect support area to buy in, so I did. Now the stock price is at all time highs (in the past 2 years). I like it.

tb

TM Chart...

2010-11-13T08:45:00.000-08:00

Toyota looks like it is turning the corner...

tb

Taking my lumps of coal..

2010-11-04T22:24:00.000-07:00

After resistance is cleared, this looks like a no brainer to 34...

tb

I'm not going to say it...

2010-10-29T06:49:00.000-07:00

I'm not going to say it...

2010-10-27T09:04:00.000-07:00

tb

PS- Fed Speaks next week...expect volatility

OPWV Chart...

2010-10-26T16:41:00.000-07:00

Here is a nice (bullish) chart pattern..

tb

Market tipped it's hand...

2010-10-20T07:20:00.000-07:00

I believe the market selloff on monday, 10/18/2010, was a clue to whats ahead. Now, all bears celebrated this move, with new short trades..

BUT, today, 10/20/2010, the market is up, or "fading" the pullback from Monday. That is good news for bears, as I think, the way to play this market right here, is to sit and watch the market over the next few days. You can start accumulating hedges..I expect the market to run flat, followed by an increase in selling pressure..

Not sure what to buy?
VXX
QID
UUP
ERY
SDS
TWM

just to name a few...

let's see what happens..

tb

GOOG!

2010-10-15T07:23:00.000-07:00

Flat price, double bottom, MACD rising, cross zero line, KaChing!

Nice price action in GOOG.
$100 invested in Oct $490 call Options returned over 1000% in 1 day. Nice!

tb

PS- If in GOOG, I would take profits here. Until $600 is left behind, I would sit on the side.

PTR Chart...

2010-10-10T21:03:00.000-07:00

The long term resistance line has broken in past 2 weeks, to the upside..

tb

USO Chart...

2010-10-08T08:07:00.000-07:00

Maybe it's "just me", but USO looks like it's at resistance.

tb

TBT Chart...

2010-09-29T15:05:00.000-07:00

There is another blog which posted a chart of TBT.. And the blogger thinks the TBT chart is bearish... I was expecting to see the same thing, but after reviewing, the weekly chart gives a different perspective..

Let's see..

tb

DOW Chart...

2010-09-25T09:42:00.000-07:00

The last 3% of a move in the market usually moves the fastest
Stocks at 52 week highs will move higher near end of Qtr, due to window dressing
We have been range bound from 9800 to 11k
The 200 weekly MA acts as resistance, we are approaching that MA here
Historical bearish October month nearing

Bullish case:
Window dressing, easiest time to trade, find 52 weeks high stocks and buy them for quick profits. End of market move moves the fastest, so as we continue higher, just adds to confirmation of move.

Bearish case:
We are approaching top end of range, and end of september, which means, the worst month for bulls is right around the corner. Until the market tells you otherwise, assume selloff from 11k.

Conspiracy Theorist case:
We don't sell off in October, but do pullback 2% quickly, to get traders to jump on the bearish bandwagon, and then proceed higher to 12k, before we selloff sometime near the end of October.

tb

MSFT Chart..

2010-09-20T21:07:00.000-07:00

Here is a pattern developing.. stop at $23.50...

tb

Bullish pattern developed with ORCL...

2010-09-19T22:31:00.000-07:00

ORCL developed the same pattern as BLK, mentioned weeks ago..

let me know if you see other stocks that have a similar pattern..

tb

SPY @ Resistance

2010-09-04T11:15:00.000-07:00

I had a nice week, with picks of JOYG and BLK.. in fact, anyone who was long the market did well this past week. But, as mentioned, the market is at resistance here. Great time to tighten stops, take profits, start hedges, go short, etc. SPY above 114, and the market breaks the down trend line, and heads higher.

tb

JOYG Chart...

2010-09-01T06:24:00.000-07:00

this chart is a coiled spring...

the stock is going to pick a direction, and move fast, soon...

tb

BLK Chart...

2010-08-30T07:35:00.000-07:00

I ran across this stock's chart, and I like the pattern being formed. This is a low risk entry right here...

tb

SPY Forcast...Cloudy with a 50% chance of rain...

2010-08-28T11:20:00.000-07:00

Right now, the market "weather" looks like sunny in the near term forecast, but, long term, I think we will see dark clouds forming, followed by rain, and maybe even some hail...

In other words, go long here with cautious optimism... if this holds true, be ready to exit longs, and/or start hedges around 110ish..

tb

Leaders lag...

2010-08-23T07:27:00.000-07:00

Leaders lag the market to the downside... Most stocks have corrected some, but consider AAPL, which has been "consolidating" for the past several months.. or has it? The stock price is flat, but the MACD shows that something omnious is about to happen... MACD is a leading indicator, and with flat price, and falling MACD, you have bearish divergence...
Watch $240...

tb

Dollar @ support...

2010-08-09T22:39:00.000-07:00

Dollar is right on support, expect a near term drop in equities...

tb

I have an ERY (pronounced "eeerie") feeling about this market...

2010-06-07T13:01:00.000-07:00

Waiting on Dug...

2010-05-27T21:20:00.001-07:00

USO Trade...

2010-05-25T22:15:00.000-07:00

tb

PS- I am looking to get in DUG at cheaper prices...

ERY Chart...

2010-05-20T07:51:00.000-07:00

Could be a pause here...

tb

Financials...

2010-05-18T20:35:00.000-07:00

A daily dose...

2010-05-18T10:51:00.000-07:00

If you trade daily, love the excitement of picking the top and bottom for the day, have at it!
Generate 100's of trades per week, scalp points... quick like a bunny... live for the thrill!

But, if you don't step back, and look at the big picture, you will see a bigger move is unfolding....all you need is one thing....patience.... try slowing the trades down....focus on the bigger time frame.... and you might just find that you're more profitable...

tb

FIFO

2010-05-14T07:07:00.000-07:00

you know the expression - "first in, first out".

Technology has been on a run! ...first out of the gate, higher... but, that also holds true when there is a correction lower..

tb

Sell the news...

2010-05-10T21:55:00.000-07:00

The warning signs are now visible...

2010-05-01T07:49:00.000-07:00

With Bonds on the rise, Volatility on the rise, and S&P on the correction, the signs are there...the market is going to pullback... sell the rallies.

tb

GS - Major price targets - $50 to $200, now back to $100?

2010-04-30T11:42:00.000-07:00

Above 11k, stay long...

2010-04-23T09:59:00.000-07:00

How are my recent suggestions working out?

YRCW

FLIR

Deja vu?

2010-04-18T22:17:00.000-07:00

Here was my forecast on INDU here.

tb

FSLR - "Fire sale"

2010-04-14T14:48:00.000-07:00

Long term trend line is finally broken..I think after the last test of 100, you have your support price.

tb

ERY Chart

2010-04-07T12:47:00.000-07:00

Low risk entry here.

tb

SD Chart...

2010-04-06T20:35:00.000-07:00

put this stock on your watch list.. Big volume today...

tb

TLT Chart...

2010-04-05T13:43:00.000-07:00

TLT looks like it wants to test the support levels, which is good for equities...

tb

PS - one point to make, from this past year...

It is better to trade in the direction of the market, than to be the first to capture the trade in the other direction.

Happy Easter Sunday...

2010-04-04T08:02:00.001-07:00

Super Saturday...

2010-04-03T12:12:00.001-07:00

Good Friday...

2010-04-02T14:29:00.000-07:00

The good, the bad, and the ugly...

2010-03-31T21:33:00.000-07:00

I want to take a minute to pause and reflect on this past year... I have posted some fantastic trades, and some, well, not so fantastic...so, below is my personal scorecard...

In feb, 2009 I suggested a bottom in BAC. Because the bottom was 2 weeks later on March 1st, 2009, I give myself an "A" grade.

In March, 2009, I suggest looking into the Solar Index. In the past year, that WAS the bottom at $6. I give myself an "A" grade.

In April, 2009, I suggested taking quick profits in Retail. We know that sector has been on a run like no other for the past 12 months. Grade "D-".

In May, 2009, I saw a bottom forming in UNG. Well, if you have looked at UNG at all in the past 6 months, you will know the story. UNG was a widow maker. I give myself an "F" grade.

In September, 2009, I saw the LVS volume up more than normal, in addition to a bearish chart pattern formation, so I suggested taking profits. Today, months later, the price pattern has been flat, taking profits was the prudent thing to do. I give myself a "B" grade.

And finally, in December 2008, I posted a bottoming chart pattern in BIDU. The stock has been on an amazing run. If you held it this past year, you are up over 700%. That an "A+" grade.

tb

YRCW - Lottery play

2010-03-26T09:11:00.000-07:00

This is a Lotto play and end of quarter play...

tb

Dollar Days...

2010-03-25T13:03:00.001-07:00

The dollar is on the move, which (should) be the opposite move for commodities...

tb

JMBA - Have a Jamba Juice...

2010-03-25T07:20:00.000-07:00

Summer is around the corner...

tb

GE... "brings good things to life"...(finally)

2010-03-24T07:25:00.000-07:00

GE has (at least) 10% to run from here...

tb

SLX - Steel... Break out soon? or Double Top?

2010-03-23T13:17:00.000-07:00

FLIR Chart - Support held... HMA chart - Break Out...

2010-03-22T10:52:00.000-07:00

Fearless...

2010-03-18T18:55:00.000-07:00

The VIX is right at the next support level... We could easily bounce back to 30 from here..

tb

FDX - Ship'n in, or Ship'n out...

2010-03-17T19:49:00.000-07:00

SPY on this...

2010-03-05T08:01:00.000-08:00

The signs are there... we are close...see my prior post.

tb

Retail chart...

2010-03-01T07:57:00.000-08:00

QID Chart...

2010-02-23T13:20:00.000-08:00

If you are looking for a short, consider going LONG the QID...

I would like a Technology "chopped" salad, please...

2010-02-09T17:03:00.000-08:00

I think we could be in for a "choppy" pattern over the next few weeks...but once we break out from the choppy consolidation pattern, we will decline further...

tb

VIX Chart

2010-02-08T16:11:00.000-08:00

A bubble in search of a pin...

2010-02-06T18:20:00.000-08:00

A Bubble in Search of a Pin

We are going to once again return to the book highlighted the last few weeks, This Time Is Different, by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. This is a book you should buy and read, especially the last 4-5 chapters, and try to get your Congressman to read it as well, so he or she can see what happens to countries that run up their debt. It makes no difference if it is small or large, the end result is the same.

Click here to read the rest.

tb

TWM: minor and major resistance...

2010-02-05T07:38:00.000-08:00

I've see the pattern a million times. Okay, maybe not a million, but I have seen where the market continues a pattern for a long period of time, then surprises everyone by going farther in price than it was "supposed" to, only to reverse course in a big way, catching everyone off guard...

THAT move is precisely when the market has changed direction (finally). Now, it's been 3 weeks now, and we are approaching first resistance around $30 on the TWM, but you can see the future target prices.

tb

Why short term trading is short lived...

2010-01-29T13:29:00.000-08:00

Daily SPX Chart...

Weekly SPX Chart...

You can see the daily chart shows a nice clean break of support, and after a quick fall, it's tempting to take profits. But, when you zoom out the chart a bit, you see how much more potential room there is to fall.

Holding your position gives you more wiggle room. Taking profits means you have less wiggle room, and may miss further declines while you wait for the "perfect" entry... As you can see from today's market action, the market has switched to the bear, now it's time to "Sell the rally"...

tb

IYT Index...She's rolling over...

2010-01-26T20:32:00.000-08:00

Any blip higher in this index will be short lived... she is rolling over...

tb

PS- I like to see the 200 weekly moving average act as resistance..

The setup...

2010-01-24T22:29:00.000-08:00

If you are thinking of going long gold, take a look at the patterns that formed over the past few years... the rising double trough in the MACD Histogram looks like the money pattern. That is, once the MACD crosses the zero line, the price rises. That however, is not the pattern that is forming in the MACD right now.

The suggestion is to wait for the pattern to form, then go long when the MACD on the 2nd trough approaches zero...your odds will increase when you trade the "proven pattern". And, you will also be better equipped to identify a pattern that fails, and cut your losses.

tb

VIX should settle here...

2010-01-22T23:27:00.000-08:00

The volatility index should pause here... before making a move higher..

tb

IWM - 2nd (and final) target reached...

2010-01-20T09:31:00.000-08:00

Run from home....depot...

2010-01-18T21:01:00.000-08:00

TLT is TNT for equities...

2010-01-12T23:44:00.000-08:00

If the bond market is ready to move higher, which it looks like it will, then equities will fall...

tb

Financials on the move; sorta...

2010-01-09T08:06:00.000-08:00

You can ride the financial move higher, but know that volatility will soon return...

tb

Solar stocks on the move; well sorta...

2010-01-06T09:01:00.000-08:00

bullish chart pattern with price...
bearish chart pattern with macd...

tb

Looking for inspiration?

2010-01-02T10:30:00.000-08:00

Rent the movie: Emmanuels Gift.

It's about a young man, born with disabilities, and his persistant effort to change the perceptions of the people of Ghana, West Africa.

tb

VXX Chart...

2010-01-01T10:36:00.000-08:00

The volume peak suggests a bottom.. now, there could be one final low coming, to about $30ish, albeit on lower volume, but that is going to be the last buying opportunity...

tb

The Credit Card Game...

2009-12-31T09:32:00.000-08:00

Good TV program from FrontLine, about the credit card game.

tb

Shankapotomus...

2009-12-30T17:55:00.000-08:00

One of my favorite commercials from this past year...

tb

New Bull Market?

2009-12-27T20:06:00.000-08:00

Not likely, says chief executive of giant bond manager Pimco.

tb