2018

Trade what is in front of you, price.

Not news.

Not earnings.

Not rumor.

Not 100's of indicators.

Trade price.

tb

One year later...

In August 2016, I projected a market pullback. Wrong. OK, 1 year later, I am forecasting a pull back.

conservative, but about 5% from here.

see below.

Volatility ready for ramp...

This is the time of year when the market finds reasons to pull back sharply...


if you are waiting to buy, I would wait for this chart pattern to play out first before jumping in...


tb

The Big Short Movie...

Here is an interesting section to the movie, The Big Short...


"Brownfield fund - investment strategy was simple. people hate to think about bad things happening, so they always underestimate the likelihood."


"Brownfield fund strategy - markets will sell options very cheaply on things that will never happen. so when they were wrong, they lost a little. when they were right, they win big."


While crystal ball's are not technical, I have a few ideas on what this market will do next 3 months.
(I backup my theory with charts).


Buy the rumor, sell the news...


Clinton is the rumored ahead and nominated president on 11/2 or Trump is nominated president. The market rallies ahead of the announcement, and once it is official, the market sell off begins.


A more volatile market if Trump is president.


Either way, the market will have priced in a "good" outcome, and selloff anyway.


tb

Reminder: Stay Alert...

This is not the time to get complacent...


The market is putting everyone at ease...


Because this is an election year, the market is on it's best behavior...enjoy it now!


But, be prepared for the possibility of a sudden reversal...


tb

Long Setup - CHK

Is this the break CHK has been waiting for?


I say yes.


tb

Long Setup - VLO

perfect setup. Buy @ market, now.


tight stop at 47.50.


tb