TraderBean: 02.08

2.29.2008

VIX - bounced...

I don't know why I bother looking at any other index..As goes the VIX, the market goes the opposite direction.. The VIX at support was a clue to take profits..

tb

2.27.2008

CSCO has found support at the 200ma...

The Weekly chart of CSCO with the 200 moving average shows good support.
Looks like it has 10% more upside in the near term.

tb

2.26.2008

MACD Zero Line... And the VIX...

The most powerful trends seem to happen right around the weekly MACD zero line. So, I charted the small cap index on a weekly, and highlighted the zero line area's along with the price action during that time frame. Although it failed to cross the zero line in December 07, I just don't see that happening this time...Unless that pesky VIX holds support...

tb

GOOG is getting close...

Keep one eye on GOOG... its going to put in a bottom as soon as March..

tb

2.24.2008

200 DOW pts in 20 minutes...

The 200 pt bull move on friday was fun if you didn't leave early on friday...But, nothing has changed from the weekly chart perspective...Looking at the SPY and VIX index, we are in a bullish consolidation pattern on the SPY. The VIX looks like it wants to head back down to 21, where the gap and support trend is.

If we take a weekly perspective, not a daily, or hourly perspective, we should see a rally soon, regardless of the 'bad news' that may come this week...

See my previous post for details.

http://traderbean.blogspot.com/2008/02/volatility-s-and-semis.html

tb

2.22.2008

Times like these, things just go on and on....

While I wait for a rally to get into a good short position, I miss the current selloff..Ah well, just watching and waiting..

tb

2.20.2008

Volatility, S&P500, and Semi's

Keep your "game face" on...

tb

2.19.2008

GS target of $150 approaching...

Daily chart & Weekly charts of Goldman Sachs..

Looks like it will reach $150 soon...

tb

2.16.2008

FSLR - my trades from the past week

Let's start with the premise:
FSLR is one high flying stock, who has a habbit of moving fast and furious after earnings. In addition, FED speaks on thursday, and we have a 3 day weekend. Knowing this in advance, helps me prepare for my trades.

The trade setup:
When FSLR made an impulse move down (*), that was the first sign the stock was done going down. Drawing a resistance trendline down from the previous highs gave me my entry point. Knowing earnings were just a few days later was also key to the trade.

The trade:
When FSLR broke above the down trend, I put in a bid for FEB 270 call @ .15. I was filled at (A), after the run the very next day, I drew a rising trendline. This helps me project where the top is. My exit was going to be the day before earnings. When the stock gapped up 2/12, the trendline was hit at (B), which gave me the exit signal. The volatility exploded, and I was able to get out at .60. The Result: 300%

The 2nd trade setup:
When I watched in disbelief as the stock dropped like a rock, I new there was a gap right around 173. Depending on how it acted once it got there, I would make a decision to buy or not.

The trade:
When FSLR hit 173 and bottomed, I bought a 230 call (C). Why 230 stike? It had the most open interest of any call strike for FEB, and after watching the call premium drop by 60%, I felt good about the trade. I got in at $1.35 near the end of day. Again, I waited for market open to see the reaction. It was up 30% premarket! I decided to do the same thing as last time, by holding for 1 day, and draw a trendline to project the tops. And on the next day, the stock jumped to over $230 per share at the open. That was the exit signal (D). The calls exploded to over $7 per contract. I sold the contract for $7.70. The result: 600%.

The 3rd trade setup:
I knew with only 1 trading day left, the options are dirt cheap. Having seen FSRL run from 170 to over 230, and knowing a gap was left at 210, AND knowing there was a 3 day weekend, AND the fed was speaking on thursday, I liked my chances of a pullback.

The trade:
I put in an order to buy FEB 210 puts shortly after my call was sold. I bid .40, and was hit within minutes. Within a few hours the options were up to 1.50, but I decided to hold on for 1 more day. I figured, if it hits 210, they would be worth more. By the end of the day, my puts were back down to .40! At the open the next day, the puts were down to .10, but I held to my conviction. Within 3 hours, the stock fell, with an impulse move down to 213 (E). That was close enough to 210 for me, so I exited the put position for $1.10. The result: 200%.

In my final trade, I learned that its best to get 1 stike closer than the target price. Time really eats away at the 210's since they were OTM. Had I picked up the 220 puts instead of the 210 puts, I would have paid $1, but they would have been worth $7, which would have net me 600%!

It was an amazing week...

Thanks for visiting.
tb

2.13.2008

White Hot Solar...FSLR

Whew! What a day....FSLR led the charge...

I have charts to post, just short on time...

Real Quick...

the market is rising, the VIX is falling...we're not done yet...

FED speaks tomorrow, so I expect a gap up followed by a pullback...

Don't forget, 3 day weekend, market is closed.. Who wants to hold over the long weekend?

On a pullback,
I like CHL...Right on support here, reports March 21.
I like STP ahead of Wed earnings report..before market open should be fun.

tb

PS- my FSLR FEB 270 calls (that I sold) are worthless today, even after a 50+ move!

2.12.2008

FSLR - Earnings tomorrow am

Lots of people are bullish on this stock... I can make a case for back to the 160's, and a move to 210's. Selling OTM puts and calls today is the way to play this pre earnings mover, as the volatility just goes thru the roof. I bought some 270 calls last week for .15, and sold them this morning for .60. Was very happy to take a 300% return off the table..

tb

2.08.2008

Chart pattern comparisons...USO, XLE, Q's

I thought it be worthwile to compare the USO with XLE and QQQQ chart patterns. While they are different sectors, you can see similarities forming between the charts. Specifically, the large trough that has formed in the XLE and Q's, which is the first large trough that is outlined in the USO chart.

It looks like we could be ready for a rise in MACD and price soon, albeit a modest rise in price. What I am looking for is a divergence between MACD and price, once we have that, we have the major buy signal...

tb