No surprise here...

My crystal ball has been working well lately... I hope I helped someone out, before the recent selloff..

So, now what? I think the element of surprise is still the bulls best bet for a nice move higher. But, we could sell today's gains until that surprise announcement happens... How do I trade it? I bought some NCC OCT $3 calls for .45 today...

By the way, I came across a good artice.. The blog has a good post on what he calls hindsight bias.

XLE Chart of interest...buy on dips, put in a stop at this weeks low.



tb

and now the waiting game...

Everyone is expecting "something" this weekend, right?

If I had to guess when the bailout occurs, it would be AFTER they announce that they have NOT come to a conclusion. The reaction, the market sells off like mad, GOOG to 300, RIMM for 50, AAPL for under 100, THEN, days later, when everyone is out of the market, they announce they have come to a decision. The reaction, the market rallies, and the Dow is up 1200pts, Nasdaq up 140pts..

It's the element of surprise where you get the most bang for your buck...

tb

is this the beginning of the end for the 4 horseman?

RIMM down 15% AH...




AAPL next?

GOOG almost there....

Man, the market was up a ton yesterday after hours, but now, it's flat today.. I guess we are not 'done' selling yet...

From looking at the GOOG chart, we have not had the "flush" in GOOG yet... I mean, the GS flush went from 150 to 90 in a week, and now back to 130 today. Or the CME flush went from 425 to 275 in 3 weeks, now 366. I can see a GOOG flush to 300 in the next few weeks... This answers my own question, which way will CSCO move, and I now believe that is down to the 21 area.

tb

Buffet is a market technician...

Berkshire buying $5 billion stake in Goldman Sachs
Tuesday September 23, 7:40 pm ET
By Anna Jo Bratton, Associated Press Writer
Buffett's Berkshire buying at least $5 billion stake in Goldman Sachs

What amazing timing...

tb

Buffet sticks it to the man...

CSCO - keep on your radar..

the market "dipped" today..

tb

Chips n Dip

Now that football season is in full swing, I want to recommend one of my favorite appetizers, chips and dip. lol...Actually, the chips are semiconductors, and the dips are pullbacks in the market... This sector is completely out of favor, and looks like a rebound is around the corner.. just look at the bullish divergence in the chart...

tb

PS- Did I mention, I like solar still, although, PBW at 19, is the first resistance point.. Man, what a week they had! I exited FSLR on thursday for $13. If I waited until friday, I could have sold for around $30 at the open... I can't complain, I only paid $1.80.

charts tell the story...

Well, it has been a wild week to say the least.. It reminds me of the grand finale we all experience on the fourth of July... just 1 firework after another, in random order, but, you know the end is near because of the velocity of the fireworks...

so, having dropped 1000pts this week alone in the DOW, one has to think, this IS THE BOTTOM. Yes, FINALLY, I think we have arrived.

So, while we were falling this week, I was nibbling on some FSLR, X, PFE...I blew the trade of the century, which was to buy deep out of the money calls in the financials for a possibility of a major announcement... When I was at work this morning, I saw GS at 87, I thought, wow, this cant go lower... But, work got in the way, and I missed THE trade...which would have been to buy the GS SEPT 100C or 110C for pennies...ah well..

So, The market will gap up hard tomorrow...will be tough to buy and hold after up 5-10% at the open... I will hold tight for 30min..

I really like EEM, someone bought 10,000 OCT 35C's for 1.35 this am.
SMH JAN 26C were bought this week for a buck...

tb

All I can say is...

tb

SKF double top approaching...

This will be a major buying opportunity in the financials...

tb

FSLR Trade

ok, I am out FSLR sept 210c at 13.00 from a purchase of 1.80 just a few days ago.
It wasn't easy...

more later..

tb

PFE trade...

Nasdaq is getting close...

tb

PS - Commodities starting to turn here...

check out these ETF's...XLE, UNG, USO, PBW, MOO, KOL...

Headlines - 9/17

Stocks Collapse as Investors Fear More Shoes May Drop; Dow Plunges 450 Points- AP

Wall Street plunged again in a crisis of confidence Wednesday as anxieties about the financial system still ran high after the government's bailout of insurer American International Group Inc. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped about 450 points, and investors seeking the safety of hard assets and government debt sent gold, oil and short-term Treasurys soaring....

Crap, did the market go down today?

Holding my FSLR SEPT 210C, down .30 today.
Holding my SKF stock, up 15% today.
Sold SNDK for 45% profit today.
Holding my UNG stock, up 8% today.
Holding my X OCT 210C, paid $1.5 today, now it is $2.5. Up ~100%.
Holding my IBM 110P, paid .40 a week ago, now its 1.40. Up 300%.

tb

PS- I really like the solar action... FSLR, STP, TSL, SPWR, ENER...

Got X?

I had to do this today... in the face of all this noise...

tb

SPY Chart

tb

SANDISK Rumor's...

SanDisk shares slide after downgrade
Tuesday September 9, 5:02 pm ET
SanDisk shares fall, Lazard analyst says buyout by Samsung is 'unlikely'

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of SanDisk Corp. continued to slide Tuesday after an analyst said a buyout of the company by South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. is "unlikely."
SanDisk's shares shot up 31 percent last Friday after a South Korean online business newspaper reported that Samsung is pursuing a takeover of the Milpitas, Calif.-based company. Samsung and SanDisk neither confirmed nor denied the report.






Samsung makes $5.85 billion bid for SanDisk
Flash-memory firm rejected earlier offer; Samsung 'compelled' to go public
By Dan Gallagher, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:27 p.m. EDT Sept. 16, 2008SAN FRANCISCO (Marketwatch) -- Samsung Electronics said late Tuesday that it has offered to acquire SanDisk Corp. for about $5.85 billion, capping several days of speculation about a potential combination of the two companies.
In a letter to SanDisk, Samsung said it was reiterating a previous offer to buy the company for $26 per share in cash, in a deal that would not be contingent to financing arrangements.


Shares of SanDisk surged more than 50% in after-hours trading on Tuesday

I love it when a plan comes together..

tb

I almost lost my faith in (my analysis) and the market...

If you caught my trade this am in FSLR SEPT 210's for $1.80, congrats!!

tb

PS - I really, really, really like SOLAR! Check the "next 6 months" section to the right...

VIX in "topping" territory...

I could not resist, I had to get into solar this am...

Bought FSLR SEP 210 C for $1.80...

I am also holding an IBM 110 put.. and some SKF..

tb

Houston?

This week:
SKF is going to attempt a double top (@200, wont make it)..
VIX is going is going to attempt old highs around 37 (will make it)..

SKF is moving...

tb

BUY the DIP's

Back in LEH SEPT $5 calls this am... it's house money for me...paid under a buck..
holding over the weekend..

tb

PS- Over 44,000 contracts traded on the SMH JAN 26 CALL.. I'm watching..

Bulls & Bears blog comments today...

So, I browsed a bullish and bearish blog today...

I have to do this when I think we are at a critical turning point, because I want to remember these sentiments when we are at a top in the market..

These comments were posted all before 7am PST this morning...when the market was down 20pts on the S&P...

Check this out...it's amazing...

From the slopeOfhope (bearish blog),
"It dawned on me this morning that now I know what it feels like to be a bull.

And, no, I don't mean unattractive, simple-minded, and clueless. I mean I know what it feels like to be in control of a market.

When I was "fighting the bull" (market, that is), it was incredibly frustrating. I felt my analysis was sound, my trading was prudent - - and yet I kept getting smacked. I felt a lot of anger and resentment. I hated the market.

That must be what the bulls feel like now. Because now I'm totally at peace with the markets. (bold for emphasis) And I am not feeling the "flip side" of the ugly feelings above (that is, boastful, vengeful, etc.........not even vindicated!) So now I know what it feels like to really be on top of a market and feel confident about what it's going to do next."

...and from Beanieville's blog (bullish blog),
"ok, it is very important you protect yourself in some form (hedging with puts if you have long positions, or just sell your positions). This is not good.
We are gonna CRASH, is startin to look like a real possibility....

I'm not gonna warn ya again to get out of margin. At least be 50 cash is my recommendation.

WE COULD C-R-A-S-H!"

No disrespect to the bloggers, but, this morning, when Timmy was at peace with the market, and was prepared for the next move, he had the rug pulled from under him in the last hour today... And when Beanie had enough of the long side, he convinced himself that we were about to crash, and was prepared for it... I mean, wow! The Bear was relaxed, ready for more coin, and the bull was running for cover, and then WHAM....


Enjoy the next move higher...

tb

LEH down another 40%...Is the sky falling?

And I was going to take a shot with the LEH $5 sept puts yesterday for under a buck yestereday.. bummer, a 1000% return gone.. watch the call side today...

tb

UPDATE:
I sold half my X 110 calls right here, at noon EST for $3.00. Let the rest ride..
Got in and out of LEH $5 calls. paid $1, solf for $1.60.

VIX

Solar - scenario played out...

Bought X Sept 110 calls for $1.65

I watched trades go by that overpaid the asking price..no guts no glory..

tb

Update: should have waited until EOD to buy...

USO getting close to support...

tb

QQQQ chart - at support

tb

Goldman fades X

Ahead of the Bell: Goldman makes US Steel top pick
Monday June 23, 8:12 am ET
Goldman adds US Steel to 'Conviction Buy List,' says company to benefit from higher prices

Aldo Mazzaferro added U.S. Steel to the bank's "America's Conviction Buy List" in a note to investors Friday. He also raised his price target to $228 from $210, implying he expects a 25 percent return on shares in the next 12 months.



Sept 4 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs downgraded the U.S. steel
sector to "neutral" from "attractive," saying the near-term
concerns continue to weigh on investor sentiment, and
transferred the coverage of the sector to analyst Sal Tharani
from Aldo Mazzaferro. "Several of the typical risks to the steel cycle such as a
rising US dollar, "China fear" and sharply falling scrap prices
have shaken investor confidence in sustainability of steel
cycle," the brokerage said in a note to clients.

I wonder what direction X will trade now?
Based just on the chart, what do you think?

tb

Solar Flare

The Solar ETF (PBW) did not break out (from 20ish), so now we retrace once more..

The question is, how low do we go? I drew up a possible scenario, which would be a major buying opportunity, as I see bullish divergence forming...

tb

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