2018

Trade what is in front of you, price.

Not news.

Not earnings.

Not rumor.

Not 100's of indicators.

Trade price.

tb

One year later...

In August 2016, I projected a market pullback. Wrong. OK, 1 year later, I am forecasting a pull back.

conservative, but about 5% from here.

see below.

Volatility ready for ramp...

This is the time of year when the market finds reasons to pull back sharply...


if you are waiting to buy, I would wait for this chart pattern to play out first before jumping in...


tb

The Big Short Movie...

Here is an interesting section to the movie, The Big Short...


"Brownfield fund - investment strategy was simple. people hate to think about bad things happening, so they always underestimate the likelihood."


"Brownfield fund strategy - markets will sell options very cheaply on things that will never happen. so when they were wrong, they lost a little. when they were right, they win big."


While crystal ball's are not technical, I have a few ideas on what this market will do next 3 months.
(I backup my theory with charts).


Buy the rumor, sell the news...


Clinton is the rumored ahead and nominated president on 11/2 or Trump is nominated president. The market rallies ahead of the announcement, and once it is official, the market sell off begins.


A more volatile market if Trump is president.


Either way, the market will have priced in a "good" outcome, and selloff anyway.


tb

Reminder: Stay Alert...

This is not the time to get complacent...


The market is putting everyone at ease...


Because this is an election year, the market is on it's best behavior...enjoy it now!


But, be prepared for the possibility of a sudden reversal...


tb

Long Setup - CHK

Is this the break CHK has been waiting for?


I say yes.


tb

Long Setup - VLO

perfect setup. Buy @ market, now.


tight stop at 47.50.


tb

Long setup - QTM

looks like a break above trend-line will move this higher, faster, back to $1 (50% return).


tb

DUST BOWL...

The market looks vulnerable for a selloff...

Bearish ETFs are looking like a good long entry here...

and VIX has a ways to go further before hitting upper trend line around 27.

tb

TWTR - New Hope - 100% upside from here...

TWTR looks like it might have finally bottomed... Lots of positive divergence showing here..


Breaking the resistance downtrend line will be confirmation.


tb

Biotech support held...

Biotech's held their support, and looks like a test back to one of these targets...


a few to watch:


GILD
BIIB
CLVS
KITE
OPHT


tb


PS- They can move quickly, so if/when the index is near a target, exit position, or tighten stop.

High Flyer - CDNL - 100% to 1000% return potential

classic double bottom, followed by big volume, and rally to test moving averages.


buy the dip under .02, sell at .04 is 100%.


tb


PS- I don't typically buy penny stocks, but this company caught my attention. Do your DD, but looks legit.

AAPL- An oldie but a goodie...

Here is a chart I put together from Friday, May 13th.

Other traders saw bearish pattern on the daily chart,

but I was not ready to throw in the towel on AAPL, and the chart above shows why...

tb

Oil to go higher, MRO would benefit...

Inventory numbers should be treated as "good" as many energy stocks look like good setups here.


XOM, COP, MRO, COG, just to name a few.


tb

APRIL Showers...

Volatility on the rise, Financials on the descend...

I see caution signs ahead for the market...

tb

March madness...Charts charts charts...

 

 

 

Lots of charts hit first target today. Potential for more upside.

 

Watch and see...

 

tb

FXY Chart

From the chart posted above, it looks like the Yen is going to hit the target near the circled red line, sometime this year...

As the Yen moves higher, the US market moves lower...

tb

SPY Chart - Key Levels to watch

I don't know how much the SPY will move if the VIX falls under 20, but that is what looks to be playing out over the next days/weeks...

HOWEVER, if the VIX bounces back over 20, that spells trouble for the bullish case longer term.

tb

Small Caps Chart - IWM

tb

AAPL Chart

See the red line?

AAPL could just be pulling back to old reliable long term support.

tb