GOOGL Chart

GOOGL does not look healthy here. Laggard to most stocks in 2014. Final move to low 400's would put in the bottom.

-tb

USO Chart

 

if USO found support, then energy stocks will do well in the near term. According to JK, Big Oil Co priced in $70, not $80 a barrel. In other words, the stocks are priced at a discount.

tb

VIX - Oct 4 -

The VIX needs to fill its gap around 12ish. Once that is done, the market will have rallied, probably to some former support levels, which could possibly become resistance.

but first, we rally until the VIX falls to 12ish. that's the next step...

I know FOCM minutes are out Wednesday. so, expect some volatility this week.

TSLA has some "D" news on 10/9.

If TSLA announces a driver-less car (self driving car), its $300 bucks in a blink.
October 300 calls are about 0.25.

if not, it might just be another "sell the news" trade.

tb

VIX - Next phase

 

ok, so we hit the target this week. 17ish. boom.

Now what?

 

I listed 3 possible scenarios.

 

Take a look at the June/July lows, that was a FIRST for the VIX. it finally broke down, below 12, to all time lows. When that happened, it became a crowded trade. Everyone was posting how dead the VIX was. My post from early July shows the sentiment of the market towards the VIX, BEFORE it starting its move.

 

Now, everyone knows we got hit this week. The VIX bounced in a big way, catching a lot of traders by "surprise". Well, almost everyone was surprised. :)

 

Now the fun part. Where from here?

 

The IWM shows a double top, which must be assumed. It looks to me like a rounding top formation.

the SPY is still in an uptrend. But, we are sitting on a upper trend line right here. While it seems like a great buying opportunity, the moving avg for the blue line is still a ways off.

I will be watching the VIX closely next week.

thanks.
tb

PS- I hope at least 1 person benefit from my trading idea.

 

The forgotten volatility... VIX

The VIX is being "laughed" at by many traders, but I stay focused on the VIX, and when it will have a good hearty laugh back. I am early, but you can see the pattern forming. A modest spike to 12-13, can happen any day now. However, the spike to the 200 weekly moving average (17ish) will take more time, but will be very profitable. Patience.

tb

SCTY Trade

SCTY Trade....

tb

PS- I am watching GOOGL for 540 bottom. I see a V bottom there...

TLT Update - 5.2.2014

The move up in TLT was expected. But, the market has been flat/up, during the move in TLT.

That's not typical.

So, lets see if the market will rally next week, with a retracement in TLT.

OR

Will the market sell off, to further strength in TLT?

tb