Options expiration week had tells that reveal the directional price bias.
take a look at the intraday chart below for options week, and compare to the open interest above.
There were a number of ETF, stocks, that pinned their price near OI at close during Options Ex. week.
TLT had largest OI in 134 calls. TLT closed < 134. Check!
AAPL had largest OI in 105 puts. AAPL closed > 105. Check!
SCTY surprised me, and opened on Friday at 50, near largest OI for calls/puts.
Then, proceeded all day to target the 48 puts, which had next largest OI.
Closed > 48.
Conclusion? If the opening price is where the price should be pinned, then it has no where to go! So, logical conclusion is to find next largest OI, and target that price.
BABA opened at 96 on Friday. The next largest OI was in calls, at strike 97.50.
Guess what the high of day was? 97.70!
In fact, it bumped up to 97.50ish, twice.
In conclusion, I will be looking for large OI for February, to determine direction of ETF, stocks, and general market direction.
tb
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