Chart patterns shaping up...

First off, its good to be really busy with work... It lets me take a break from the day to day noise in the market.. You can out think your own trades by being too close to the action... Gotta step back every once in a while..

So, without knowing what is going on in the world, because I just don't have the time to read/interpret news lately, I can see the following chart pattern's taking place...

Q's double bottomed at 2155 and 2167. 1st bottom trough was much larger than the 2nd trough that is forming now.. 2nd trough is rising towards zero line, so could be a stopping point once at 0, but it looks like we could make it to 2475 before we stop heading higher..

XLE looks like the 1st trough has formed..waiting for a reversal to jump in..could be a plunge to 70-69, before reversal.. lets see, if that happens, that means USO falls further, XLF rallies, and Q's rally...hmm...

Speaking of XLF..it looks like it wants 24ish.. I got out of my C calls near 23, since it was just too much too fast, but after a quick retracement, the XLF is bouncing once again.. I still see a "W" formation in the XLF longer term...

PBW has a similar pattern as the Q's... small rising trough with recent bottom, looks like 22 is the near term target.. above 23ish, and she's gone to test old highs...

MOO has formed a giant first trough, but has yet to start rising..looks to be soon..could retest 60..

Oh yeah, and the VIX is falling... could it retest 15?

tb

XLE Chart

I hope for 70 on the XLE, but we are very close to a bottom right here...

tb

a pattern to recognize...

First off, a personal trade... I bought some C AUG 22.5 calls when C was trading around $19... I paid 0.32. Then C fell like crazy to $14, and those same calls were worth .07. Now, I was in disbelief, as I expected a turnaround at any time...So, I held thru it... And this morning, what did I find, but .90 for those same calls... Nice! However, I didn't catch that price, and sold for .70 instead.. Still, from .32 to .70 is good..

The point? It would have been easy to sell the calls for a loss, and take whatever I can get...But, I stayed with the plan, and on the charts, I expected a sizable bounce..It wasn't easy.. But, what I am learning even more from this past few months, is not only charts are important, but the calendar is equally important..

I noticed I would guess at the bottom in a stock/sector.. is it a double bottom? No? Is it a falling knife? Where is support? Fib's? Trendlines? Hey, how about the calendar? What quarter are we in? What is the sentiment of the sector? Have funds sold out of their losing positions yet? When do they have to sell by, if they wanted to? How did the sector react last quarter?

It was mid January, when we received a major bounce in the financials, which lasted about 2 weeks. Now, mid July, we get another 2 week bounce. I think its a good time to take quick profits in XLF (and XHB, as it hit $19 today)...

USO near $100, is a perfect setup to rally from..I expect a retest of old highs, not met, but tested...

SKF right here looks good too, could go down to 107ish, but a bounce to minimum of $140 is likely..

tb

XHB Chart

XLF Chart

USO Chart

Short the SDS

Been on PTO the past week... and away from the market has been a good thing.. trying to time the daily moves has been tough right now.. but, the charts look like they are days away from a nice sizable bounce...

tb

Short the DOG