A riddle for you...

How do you expire 28,000 June call contracts, and reward only 2000 June put contracts?

Hint, the stock gapped up this morning...




tb

Watch RTH

Buy ANF

XLF rallies/USO falls/IWM at R?

I expected to see a relief rally in XLF, and we finally got one today. Thanks to the USO scareoff, I mean, selloff that hapened right after the spike to 107. While the impulse move up in the USO was a surprise, I checked the gaps, and thought, hmm, the USO just filled the gap, in dramatic fashion, thats all... and sure enough, that was it, and the selloff began...

The fast money "expert" kept pounding the table to ride USO higher, you can easily draw a crayon to find support... Well, the contrarian in me, said its not "that" easy... And went short.. See how easy that is? When they pound the table how easy it is, be a skeptic...

Oh, the same goes for those puts in the financials... "lots of puts in the financials" they said.. well, sure, when XLF was at 27, sure.. but down here at 24? Nope.. I fade that noise too...

I was in some GS from a few days ago, and took profits today... Should have played MA instead... I think we could still find 23 in the XLF, but I will wait and see..

What I am watching now, is the XLE.. I expected some consolidation this week, and while the volatility has been amazing in XLE, its just moved sideways this week, with big up/down swings... Are we going to break down further back to 75, or bounce back to test the old highs? I am watching/waiting..

As for the solars, they pulled back nicely this week.. as goes the USO, so goes the solars... that trend has not changed...

tb

Watch SHLD

Buy GRMN

Buy Pepsi

XLF & USO chart

Watch XLF

Watch TIE

Watch WYNN

Buy HOC

**I recommend this stock as a buy. But, the chart pattern is a descending triangle, which is actually bearish.. So, it's better to play the breakout above last weeks high...If HOC falls below $40, it could fall in a hurry, so use a tight stop...

Buy RAIL

Watch PBW

Watch XLE

Long DUG

Watch JNPR

Long VIX

Short X

Have a nice weekend... (UPDATE)

Over the weekend, I will add 3 sections to the right hand side... BUY, SELL, and WATCH... I need to do this, if only as a reminder to myself..I will show the timeframe you should hold the stock for, and/or the price to get in/out at, along with a stop out price... I may put in my general market status' too.. ie., short term bearish, long term bullish..we'll see..

and now, for some thought blogging...

I nailed the XLE top, when I saw the stock in the 90's...Stocks react to even numbers all the time...Once I saw the pattern, I had to post it, and act.. What I didn't do so well, was I predicted a drop to 87ish, then some consolidation, before a run to 95. So, once it dropped to 87, even though I saw a gap at 86, I covered at 87.. Woohoo.. BUT, jeez, XLE was JUST started its descent.. I should have given the trade more time. It was the trading, not the $$ that bothered me...

Also, I caught my eye on US STEEL (X), which I have watched for years.. forget TA, this stock just runs from March to May/June every year... When it broke out at 120, I should have bought and held until May. Anyway, now it topped at 180, which I posted here 2 days ago. The upper trend line was clear as day (to me). I got in at $179, and covered this morning in the 160's. Nice! The too much too fast theory applied... I will post more on X this weekend..

As for the SPY, I charted the SPY, thinking we had a double top that formed this past week. But then the SPY had a (false) breakout, to fill the gap just a % higher, and once that was filled, the market started to fall.. I ignored the fact that a false breakout was unfolding, and looked for stocks to buy, that haven't moved yet.. Never forget, "as goes the market, so goes the stock price".. In other words, trade in the direction of the market... That said, my HOC buy recommendation, while long term seems promising (based on charts), would also correct with the market... Oh, and my WYNN, LVS buys, same deal, I shouldn't recommend buys during a potential correction...

And last but not least, I posted all the solar stocks that were up 40% in a week.. You know the names, CSIQ, SOLF, ENER, etc..This was during options expiration... While I was creating the post, I thought, this feels just like the china stocks that all were up crazy percentages at the same time back in October... Hey, this may be a great time to go short!? ... of course, I didn't pull the trigger, I was looking to BUY...I am not sure what is worse, not trading an idea that you think has a good risk/reward, or trying an idea and getting stopped out for a loss.. I think the former is worse..

Oh, and I wanted to mention, that I've started browsing other blogs, tk, f8, beanie, z's... And I picked up on a few comments this past week, which I think were interesting (to me).. Start with Tk's blog... As you know, he is bearish by nature.. So, when he posted that he is only blogging once a day, instead of intraday posts, I thought, man, this may be the top, which I posted here.. And by the same token, beanie's site was showing anyone and everyone making lots of $$, buying penny stocks... again, I posted here, hey, aren't penny stocks the last to move, before the correction?
So, I had all the information I needed to short the market, yet, while I did short some (XLE, X), I could have made much more this past week...

If you haven't figured out by now, I am a contrarian at heart... Always looking for the other angle..

ok, for the 3 people who read this, I hope you enjoyed it. :)

UPDATE 5/24:
The penny stocks comment I refer to at beanies, was actually 1 person (not beanie) which caught my eye... I merely mention beanie's site, because I consider his site bullish...with a few short trades sprinkled in... On the other side, Tk's blog is bearish, with a dash of long trades sprinkled in... I chose to use these two sites to gauge market sentiment.. They are both excellent blogs to browse...
No disrespect to either blog.

tb

PS- A little stand up from Jerry Seinfeld

Holly Molly!

Almost all the refiners look like this chart pattern...

VLO, FTO, WNR, TSO to name a few...

tb

Volatility is back... XLF gonna double down...

Added US Steel Chart...X...




We are in for a bumpy ride... Fast money picked up on the XLF put buying yesterday..

tb

XLE has arrived at the $90 milestone..

I just realized the XLE price pattern once the ETF reached $50 and $70 for the first time, was the same (small retracement, add 5 pts, then major pullback). And when XLE reached $60 and $80 for the first time, the price patter was the same, just pullback. So, the price pattern is 50,70,90... XLE is at 90, therefore, small pullback, add 5 more pts to 95, then back to 75...

tb

DUG'n for profits

I see capitulation like volume in DUG these past few days..

tb

Peak OIL

You can make a case for OIL topping by looking at the oil refiners price action. By the price action, it looks like OIL is peaking, and the refiners whose margins are squeezed by rising OIL, are already priced into the stock price.

Tb

WYNN, LVS, and BID

Options Expiration Week - 5/16

Last week's trend started with ENER earnings (Solar stock), that sent the stock up 30% or more. It contined higher this week for 19% more..That set the stage for CSIQ, which posted earnings above estimates, and rocked higher by 37%, and to finish off the week with SOLF, which on the last day before options expiration, the May 20's were .10, and by the end of the day, SOLF closed at $2.85 a share, now that's over a 2000% return!

this weeks movers... I'm sure there were others..
DRYS up 20%
ENER up 19%
CSIQ up 37%
SOLF up 53%
CSUN up 44%

Market keeps moving...

SPY Double top?

Falling VIX..

Funny how the market is feeling better, and running stocks once again... Are we out of the woods? Is it safe to be fully invested once again? If you bought X at $170, I would be nervous. Did you buy GOOG at $600? Or what about FSLR today, at $300 per share? Man, seems like another correction is due... What will be the catalyst, I am not sure... How about, summer slowdown, earnings season over, the stock is fully valued, the consumer pays $4 per gallon and can't afford to purchase a share..just to name a few..lol..

Comments from a bear today...
"I simply find the potential for a breakout too disturbing, and the reluctance of the market to fall, no matter what the news." - gotta be getting close to a top, be carful...

tb

IWM moving higher..

EK - double bottom - ready to buy...

GS Support and Resistance

Fade FastMoney - USO, KALU chart

I started a segment on what I call "fade fastmoney". It's when they bring on a "specialist" to talk about a sector, a stock, whatever..But, make sure the expert goes on the show AFTER the big move up or down took place...There was someone on the show about a month ago, who spoke of how expensive GS was at $164. GS is now $197.

Joe Terranova, the expert, was speaking about TSO and VLO stocks back in March, and said that you can buy these without fail until Memorial Day in May. We all know whats happened to these tocks since... both are near their 52week lows...

So, what does he talk about today? OIL, what else? Its at all time highs... He couldn't be more bullish about oil right now..see's no sign of a slow down in OIL demand any time soon.. This is where I come in, and fade Fast Money..

tb

PS - This chart below looks really good...

XLF back to 27, support?

What act's as resistance, once broken, becomes support. The XLF pulled back to low 27's today, which has been resistance for months... Fannie Mae reports before the open on Tuesday, which could be the catalyst for the sector...

tb

USO - Deja Vu?

A repeating chart pattern is forming in the USO.. Take a look...

tb

MSFT, YHOO and GOOG, "Oh my!"

CSCO reports wednesday, which should do well for tech, so if we get a double top in GOOG around $600, that would be the time to short.. It looks like the short term top in GOOG was pushed out a few weeks this year, as the past 2 years was mid april. So, my short term bottom was pushed out to mid June. Thats my timeframe for GOOG's gap to fill..

tb

What "is", what "was", in play?

This is what I see lately...

Leaders from past 6 months, correcting:
APA
POT
FSLR
XOM
HAL

Laggers from past 6 months, moving up:
GOOG
VSEA
GS
AAPL
CSCO
EMC

Whats next with potential to move up?
TSO, VLO
QCOM
GM
Q
LRCX
WYNN


My list would be more comprehnsive, but I just have not had the time lately..
tb