SPY Update - Friday, Jan 23rd

you can't make this stuff up! look what I posted just minutes after a huge run up on Thursday
(see below), and look where SPY finished on Friday....

tb

Charts - Options Week Jan. 23rd

this was an amazing week, the markets had an amazing week... if you look at open interest, you can see where the market had to go... now, we are "over extended" as it pertains to where the market should pin options expiring tomorrow. Based on OI only, we should close below 205.

can you see why TLT faded, once it hit 135?

 

and finally.....My favorite trade of the week....TSLA for the win!

 

can you see why TSLA climbed its way to 200+ ?

 

that's all for now.

tb

 

 

 

 

SPY Chart - Options Week

Options expiration week had tells that reveal the directional price bias.

take a look at the intraday chart below for options week, and compare to the open interest above.

There were a number of ETF, stocks, that pinned their price near OI at close during Options Ex. week.

TLT had largest OI in 134 calls. TLT closed < 134. Check!

AAPL had largest OI in 105 puts. AAPL closed > 105. Check!

SCTY surprised me, and opened on Friday at 50, near largest OI for calls/puts.

Then, proceeded all day to target the 48 puts, which had next largest OI.

Closed > 48. 

Conclusion? If the opening price is where the price should be pinned, then it has no where to go! So, logical conclusion is to find next largest OI, and target that price.

BABA opened at 96 on Friday. The next largest OI was in calls, at strike 97.50.

Guess what the high of day was? 97.70!

In fact, it bumped up to 97.50ish, twice.

In conclusion, I will be looking for large OI for February, to determine direction of ETF, stocks, and general market direction.

tb

USO Trading plan for next week - JAN 16

I bought RIG today, @ 16.28. Technical pattern - Double Bottom + the oil potential to move 10% next week...Option Monster trader jumped in today too, so I am in good company...

trading ideas:

sell USO OTM puts 18 and below.
sell USO OTM calls 22 and higher.
buy USO ITM calls, 18 and below.
all expire next Friday.

or
buy USO at 18.50 and hold for 20 to 22.
buy HAL, CVX, COP, XOM, or RIG... Solars could also move: SUNE, FSLR, SCTY..

tb

TSLA trading plan... Update 1/6/2015

TSLA trading plan for next 2 weeks is based on Open Interest (OI), and where I suspect the MM (market makers) will take this stock price by the end of this week, and the following week. Having this plan in place ahead of the trading week gets me prepared.

for week of 1/9-
Short TSLA at 220ish. Buy 220, 222.50, or 225 puts.

If TSLA > 220, stay out, exit short position.
if TSLA near 210 before 1/9, close short position.
if TSLA < 210 before 1/9, close short position, go long position with 200c.

for week of 1/16-
Short TSLA at 210ish. Buy 210, 212.50, or 215 puts.

if TSLA > 210, stay out, exit short position.
if TSLA near 200 before 1/16, close short position.
if TSLA < 200 before 1/16, close short position, go long position with 190c.

done.

now, lets see what happens.

tb

UPDATE: JAN 6, 2015

TSLA price movement:

Target of 210 met.
gap filled at 205.