Volatility...

tb

Ok, now what?

There is very little on the calendar this week, as far as economic news.
However, there is a USD Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, scheduled for Friday, August 26. That should move the market direction over the next few weeks... If the results of that meeting are positive, expect a big rally, to former support lines... If the results are uneventful or negative, expect further selloff (until the good economic news is eventually announced).

If I had a crystal ball, it would say:

sell off continued monday-wednesday, followed by end of day rally on wednesday, and continuation rally on thursday.

friday news leak, market selloff (news is not good).

Following week: monday is flat, and on tuesday, market rallies, as terms are agreed to from summit, the market rallies 10%-20% over next days/weeks.

Once we reach old support (now resistance lines), we sell longs, go short for the final selloff...

tb

PS- there are 3 things I am certain of. Death, Taxes, and Market Volatility.

TWM...

If you missed the entry I [posted ] a few weeks ago, there is another good entry here...sell at 90ish, 40 pts from now...

tb

SPY Chart..

I was expecting a bounce higher to the upper horizonal line, but I am not sure we will get it now... last weeks bounce, may have been all she had left.. since the market is stalling, I am more cautious..

tb

200 weekly moving avg...

Ah, the 200 weekly moving avg... no blog, that I am aware of, talks about this moving average as much as I do...everyone spends their time on daily and hourly charts... anyway, glad to see the 200 wma do its job..

So, I stumbled across a stock this weekend, that I think can move up big from here, and in a hurry..I like it so much, I am going to buy it this week in my 401k, perhaps as early as monday morning. Hopefully a lower open will make it easier for me to get in at a better price... the chart shows the first of a double bottom is being put in place right here. This is after 3 years of down trends...it's a low risk entry, for 20% upside in 2-3 weeks.

If your are interested, let me know and I will send you the chart...

tb

Do Charts Lie?

ok, so looking at the 3 month chart (select chart to zoom in), you will see the long tail on 8/9, down to the $8 price for FAS. I think this was good news, as I have a buy order at $9.

However...

when I check the 5 day chart, it shows that price has not fallen below $12...

Ok, maybe its the charting software, or timeframe, so I ran it for 3 year chart, and on different charting software... same result... weekly chart showing a long tail to the $8 area..

so, what does this mean? well, it "shows" that it hit below $9, but since my order is still open, AND the daily chart shows no where near $9, the only conclusion I can draw, is some charts lie... at least FAS did...hmm..

tb

Buy the Dip...

[short term trade]
Based on the chart above, it looks like we should be buying the dips here..
..and sell when it reaches previous support..

OR
[long term trade]
sell/short the rallies near horizontal line...
..cover when the market finally hits bottom..

tb

Market Madness...

anyone notice the percentage drop on the S&P today?

tb

SPX Chart...

tb

Bounce play - X

If you are looking for an oversold bounce play, give X a try.

tb