VIX ready to retest 25?

Potash Corp. and US Steel

Two leaders in their respective sectors, that are nearing the end of their bullish run...

S&P near "flat" for the year...

Last year, the market ran up to 8%, then back to 0%, back to 8% up, then back to 0%, before finishing up 8% by year end..

At the 8% top for the year, I recall the commentators announcing, "the market is having a fantastic year, up 8% for the year!"..Almost on a dime, the market pulled back to 0% within the next few months..

And as expected, when the market was near 0%, the commentators announced, "Ugg, the market has given all its gains back, we are flat for the year!".

So, this year, we were down ~20% in January, and now have climbed are way back to 0% for the year..

Within a few weeks, those same commentators will most likely announce, "The S&P 500 is up 0-1% for the year! Amazing Run!". I think that's right around the time the market will look for the exits.. Having said that, I think just a correction is due...

With rate cuts coming to an end, a rising dollar is expected... Commodities should fall in sympathy... And companies with international exposure will have "head winds" from the rising dollar.

tb

XLF Bullish flag forming..

Comments:

POT quietly moved up quarter over quarter, with a few recent surprise earnings announcements. Not this quarter, everyone was all over the "potential big move", so they ran up POT to $220/share ahead of earnings. Only 1 place to go after the earnings announcement, down. POT is now in the $190's as of this post, and thats $30 in just a few days.

FSLR had a block buster quarter last go around, and spiked up $50 pts after the earnings announcement. The stock price was consolidating ahead of the earnings announcement, which helped create the "surprise" upside move.. But since March, FSLR has moved up almost $100 pts, to near $300/share. I suspect, no matter how good the news is from FSLR on wednesday, it will not be a big upside move, as it has already been priced in..

VLO reports tuesday, and the chart suggests bad earnings will be reported. So where is the surprise when the announce? To the upside, because if they report terrible, it's priced in. If they don't report terrible, well then, its not as bad as first thought..

tb

QQQQ's near 50% retracement from Oct.

Let's review then and now...

This was then....




This is now...


Serious $$ was made today...
tb

OIH meets "Par", XLE chart

GOOG - Up over $500 after hours!!

Obsevations:

During this options expiration week...

What was bullish last/this week? Solar/Ag's

In a single day,
POT hits $200/share, then corrects 10pts.
FSLR hits $300/share, then corrects 20pts.
SPWR hits $100/share, then corrects 12%.

What was bearish/mixed last/this week? GOOG

GOOG up 75 pts after hours. I absolutely nailed this one..

Whats the point?

1) Sell your stock, if it hits par (ie., $100, $200, $300) for the first time.

2) Fade the trend during options week, for cheap shot at 500%+ gains..

During options expiration week, pay attention to how a sector/stock has performed ahead of earnings, especially during expiration week. You can make a ton if you fade the trend. Puts in AG's and Solar yesterday/today would have done very well. Oh yeah, and GOOG calls ahead of won't be so bad either.. :)

tb

PS- GOOG short term top is around mid april, that looks like tomorrow!

NEW Section - Fade FastMoney

I am creating a new section (to the right), which will be called, "fade fastmoney". For those of you not familiar, there is a tv show on CNBC called "fast money". They try to offer tips and tricks on trading the market. Now, sometimes there is a little too much hype for a sector or a individual company, and they bring on "experts" to make there case for higher/lower prices (whatever the current trend is). This is where this section comes in, as we will "fade" or go against the trend.

If the show says "buy", we sell, go short. If the show says, "sell", we buy or cover short.

For example, back in November, the show compared GOOG with Gold, and asked the audience, which will happen first? GOOG to $1000 or GOLD to $1000? Well, that was my trigger to sell GOOG as it just ripped 200 pts to over $720/share. But not only that, along with all the technical reads that a correction was near, it made sense to exit/short GOOG.

Another example, GS has fallen recently from $180 to $164. The other day, an "expert" appears on the show, and explains why the brokers are too expensive, especially GS. 3 days later, GS is over $170.

It seems to me as if they have someone watching for recent trends, and then bring on the expert to make a case for the current direction of a particular stock/sector. Unfortunately for them and the show, it's usually the end of the trend...

tb

INTC reports AH up 8%. IBM and GOOG are next...

tb

CROX Chart - Dude...

This video may be what some of you might say, after you review my CROX chart below. (lol).

IWM - filling the gap

XLF - consolidation mode

GOOG Earnings next week..

FXI

FXI Pullback may be near the end... Watch this one...

tb

VSEA - Chips, JNPR - Networks

- taken from Motley Fool...
Do you know the famous Warren Buffett adage: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful"?

Well, consider these quotes from some of the most respected names on Wall Street, and tell me which emotion you think is most prevalent in the market today:

"I think we are going to have a doozy of a recession."
-- Julian Robertson
"I don't think there is much upside over the next few months ... the mess just keeps spreading."
-- Edward Yardeni
"The situation is much more serious than any other financial crisis since the end of World War II."
-- George Soros
The stock market has spooked even the most experienced of investors, but Buffett's words still ring true: It's time to get greedy.

Yes, I read the newspaper
The housing bubble has burst, the credit crisis continues, the Federal Reserve may have lost its ability to stimulate the economy, and the United States appears headed for a recession. Each one of these headlines is frightening by itself; together, they're terrifying.

But as my Foolish colleague Bill Mann likes to say, "If it's in the headlines, it's in the stock price." Think about it -- do you know a single investor who's unaware of these horrifying headlines? Of course not. These fears have already been factored into stock prices -- and then some.

VIX gap filled...

Filled the gap, the Vix should see a bounce in the near term..

tb

QQQQ's & MRK Chart

5% more upside in Q's...VIX holding at support...

tb

Retail and Homebuilders...And the Vix...

VIX is poised for the next major move...



Two sectors both look like they are due for a pause...
tb

EMC Chart

Looks like EMC is putting in a bottom here...

tb

FedEx reached "par" ($100/share)

USO chart

When USO breaks below $80, it will fill gap left at $75...The target is $65ish...

tb

GOOG update...

To the right side of my blog, there is a link to a GOOG chart with my comments about the projected future moves of the stock... This stock pattern has been predictable the past 2 years... So far, we are on track for a third year...

tb

VIX is at support...

A break below the support line would be significant, but can it be done? Otherwise, its just another shorting opportunity for the market..

tb