DOW 11,850?

"I don't think this is an investors' market right now," he said. "I think there is a lot of money on the sidelines and once you get some kind of good catalyst -- anything to make the market look better -- they'll come rushing into the market."

Clark said Thursday's employment report could show that the economy is holding up better than some investors have predicted.

"I still think it's going to be negative but not as negative as people are expecting," he said. "Things aren't as bad as people think they are. We're talking ourselves into a market decline and a recession."


I learned this morning about "redemptions", which explains the June gloom...

6/11/2008 10:29pm
Financials: WSJ notes that hedge funds are preparing for large redemptions at the end of this month
- Hedge fund HBK Investments recently saw an increase in withdrawal requests.
- The article notes that Farallon Capital could face $1.4B+ in redemptions for the period through June.
- Hedge fund redemptions can have ripple effects on markets in the near term if funds are seeking to raise cash through asset sales.

GS Upgrades/Downgrades

Conviction List

Goldman Sachs analyst Jim Covello this morning raised his rating on Lam Research
LRCX to Buy from Sell and added the stock to the firm’s Conviction Buy List.

LRCX

Covello notes that he has been negative on Lam for the last 2-3 years given its high exposure to the memory sector, but that he has now become more confortable with the stock. He says DRAM capex cuts are now mostly behind us; he says valuation is attractive at 15x normalized EPS; and he says checks in Asia find a pickup in orders in the second half is possible from Samsung and possibly Rexchip. He raised his price target on LRCX to $45, from $41.

Based on the same expectation for a rebound in orders, he also raised his rating on Advanced Energy (AEIS) to Buy form Neutral, boosting his target on the stock to $16 from $11.

AEIS

Covello made several other related calls.

He removed Verigy (VRGY) from the Goldman Conviction Buy List, though it remains Buy rated.

He downgraded both FormFactor (FORM) and Entergis (ENTG) to Neutral from Buy “to make room for LRCX and AEIS.” He says “there is better relative value” in LRCX and AEIS.

VRGY
FORM
ENTG

ASML Holding (ASML) shares are poised for a higher opening after Goldman Sachs analyst Simon Schafer raised his rating on the chip equipment company to Buy from Neutral and added the stock to the firm’s Conviction List.

“In our view, ASML now factors in the potential for a near-term gross margin miss and is significantly undervalued” compared to its peers, he writes in a research note. “While we do not foresee a material recovery in orders in 2Q, our checks underscore our confidence that 3Q and 4Q are shaping up nicely, based on incremental orders from Samsung and Rexchip/Elpida.”

ASML

NEW YORK (AP) -- A Goldman Sachs analyst upgraded the oilfield services sector to "Attractive" from "Neutral" Thursday, predicting strong profit growth due to greater drilling activity and high oil prices.
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Analyst Charles Minervino expects earnings to grow in the double digits through 2011 as high oil prices lead to more rapid rig construction, and both drilling activity and the rates oil companies pay for drilling will increase.

Minervino raised price targets throughout the sector, and said deep water drillers Transocean Inc., Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. and Pride International Inc. will be paid higher rates. He also favors land services that do a significant amount of business in North America, including Halliburton Co., Nabors Industries Ltd. and Helmerich & Payne Inc.

He added that Schlumberger Ltd. will also benefit from higher spending and increased rig counts.

Watch SPY

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Milestones BKX

this chart was yesterday, today's low posted as 60.01.

Watch C

Chad Vader won't tolerate this market much longer..

ok, little humor in a down market...

If I had a crystal ball, here is my prediction after fed speaks tomorrow..

no rate cut announced.. so, the USO, and XLE run higher...breaking above 90, for the climax bull run, that should last about 2 weeks..

tb

XLE Alert #3

XLE looks like it wants to break $90, and soon..

tb

SPYders and BANKs

Lessons Learned...

I posted just a few days ago, to get out of tech on rallies... Posted a chart in the sell section(to the right), and "magically", the Q's fell hard today... I say "magically" with sarcasm, as the charts indicated such a move..

And just recently, I posted a nice consolidating chart on GOOG... It looked like at any moment it could break out..(bias to the upside). I tried to jump in on a pullback from yesterday, while the Q's were falling.. Well, that didn't work out so well today, as I got out for a quick loss.. Will GOOG go higher? Eventually, but its not a good idea to fight the sector direction...In hindsight, I should avoid posting/thinking about "buying opportunities" when I think a sector is about to fall... Better to swim in the same direction as the current..

Rules I (try) to follow:

Rule #1 - Identify which direction the market is trading..

Rule #2 - Find the strongest/weakest stock in the sector, to buy/sell, and determine support/resistance areas...

Rule #3 - Have a plan for entry price, exit price, and target price..

Rule #4 - Taking a small loss is better than "hold and hope".. you can always get back in..

Rule #5 - If the market is too difficult to trade, stay away... paper trade if you must, but sit on your hands...

Rule #6 - Believe in the old saying, "Sell in May and go away", until the market proves otherwise...

Rule #7 - man, so many rules! just one more on my mind.. ;)

Rule #8 - pay attention to the month/quarter we are in.. this past month, felt like an end of year "window dressing", where all stocks that were near 52 weeks highs, continued higher.. And all the stocks near 52 week lows, continued lower.. those in between have mixed results.. Had you just kept buying POT, MOS, MON, and shorted, LEH, BAC, C, you would have done quite well this past few weeks/months..

Rule #9 - if you must hold positions, buying insurance is a good idea, especially after a nice run..(ie., buy puts against the stocks/calls you are holding).

Rule #10 - keep at it, because in the end, it's always about fear and greed..

tb

CME is strong (recently) in this whipsaw market..

CME gapped 25 pts just a week ago... now hovering around 438 as of this posting..

Could have sold off this morning to fill the gap, but it didn't... That's the type of price action I am looking for in a stock...


tb

GOOG spring coiled...

If you waited to buy GOOG, tomorrow may fill a small gap from a few days ago.. Last 2 years, 1st week in July was the short term top...Could we make it 3 years in a row?

tb

XLE The Final Blast?

XLF Double bottom'ed

I think we have seen the worst in financials...

tb

Watch FXP

Watch VIX

Sell QQQQ

Buy QID

LEH - over 100 million shares traded

LEH was down 5%, now flat, with over 100 millions shares traded... interesting..

XLF just keeps going and going...(lower)

We are getting close to a double bottom, with bullish divergence... just watch and wait for the market to tell you, "its ok to get back in financials"...

tb

SOHU chart

SOHU topped at 60, pulled back for 3 weeks, then spiked higher back to retest 60, creating a double top. Now the stock tested 90, and is pulling back. It could spike back to retest 90, but the next few months look lower.. I see $65 as the first target..

tb

BIDU - approaching 300

I put this chart together this afternoon, but with the futures down tonight, its a good short idea..

Bloomberg -
"June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell, driving the benchmark index to a two-month low, as widening credit-market losses and the prospect of higher borrowing costs fanned concern earnings will decline.

Macquarie Group Ltd. and Babcock & Brown Ltd. plunged in Sydney after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. reported a $2.8 billion loss and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said policy makers will ``strongly resist'' inflation. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. tumbled after the nation's banks were ordered to increase reserves for the fifth time this year.

``It's going to take several years before the credit problems work themselves through the system,'' said Robert Rountree, Singapore-based director of investment marketing at Prudential Asset Management, which oversees $55 billion of assets in Asia. Markets are reacting to the fear factor of rising interest rates.
"


tb

XLE Alert #2

XLE heading back to 90, once above 90, the next stop would be 95.

tb

PS- What did the ETF say, when it crossed the road? "MOO!"

Milestones UNG

Milestones MOO

Milestones USO

Milestones XLE

Milestones QQQQ

Milestones Dow

Houston?

Market found an excuse to sell off today... I closed my VIX out..

I thought USO and XLE always rallied together, but today, USO took off and left XLE behind...Looks like the "war" comments spooked everyone... Having said that, GRMN rallied 2 pts the last hour, ahead of apple's announcement on monday..

tb

PS- If/when energy bounces, I'm watching POT and APA..

XLE Alert

My XLE analysis is correct so far, and if it plays out, we will see all time highs in the XLE, to somewhere around $95, over the next several weeks.

By the way, it turns out, tomorrow's job report was expected to lose 50k jobs, but an analyst reported that the number should be closer to +20k jobs instead. Which could explain why we had a nice rally across the board today..

tb

Nice day, crack the whip Bulls!

Traders:
MAS - NSM 22.5 June calls, NICE! I'm holding from 2 days ago..NSM up 2 bucks after hours..
Beanie - BIDU mention today - Liked the chart, I got in for a day trade, 5 pts...
F8 - FSLR mention - bounce possibility, I got in for day trade 3 pts...
Z - Not giv'n up on CME, crazy yesterday, but now genius today!

Holding CSCO 27.5 Leaps...
Holding GRMN July Calls...
Holding CME 600 Leap Calls...from yesterday!

Sold my USO July 100 puts yesterday at 99ish..whew...someone had 140 contracts to sell, even while USO price dropped, I followed the trade and got out too..

Watch XLE, it could find its way to 95 in less than 2 weeks. See my chart with comments to the right... Do you believe? I don't either, but thats what the chart is showing today...

tb

PS- That video ages me... lol

Know your angles...LNN

LNN has been a steady climber, but lately the stock has shifted into another gear..Just check out the angles of the stock...If you can, try to get in on pullbacks..

tb

CSCO Ready?

Speculation Trade - LNG

I browsed beanie's blog today, and MAS has been posting his trades on little stocks like this, with huge gains... ROYL, JRJC, HNT, and ACOR just to name a few... So, I stumbled across this little stock... It looks like its going to move higher.. Maybe we can get in (BEFORE) MAS! lol.. :)

FYI - Lots of activity on the June 7.5 calls today..

tb

PS- If anyone has the time to research LNG, and can post it here, that would be cool..

Short HAL

Watch CI

Watch CME

IWM Chart