1.29.2010

Why short term trading is short lived...

Daily SPX Chart...



Weekly SPX Chart...




You can see the daily chart shows a nice clean break of support, and after a quick fall, it's tempting to take profits. But, when you zoom out the chart a bit, you see how much more potential room there is to fall.

Holding your position gives you more wiggle room. Taking profits means you have less wiggle room, and may miss further declines while you wait for the "perfect" entry... As you can see from today's market action, the market has switched to the bear, now it's time to "Sell the rally"...

tb

1.26.2010

IYT Index...She's rolling over...



Any blip higher in this index will be short lived... she is rolling over...

tb

PS- I like to see the 200 weekly moving average act as resistance..

1.24.2010

The setup...



If you are thinking of going long gold, take a look at the patterns that formed over the past few years... the rising double trough in the MACD Histogram looks like the money pattern. That is, once the MACD crosses the zero line, the price rises. That however, is not the pattern that is forming in the MACD right now.

The suggestion is to wait for the pattern to form, then go long when the MACD on the 2nd trough approaches zero...your odds will increase when you trade the "proven pattern". And, you will also be better equipped to identify a pattern that fails, and cut your losses.

tb

1.22.2010

VIX should settle here...



The volatility index should pause here... before making a move higher..

tb

1.12.2010

TLT is TNT for equities...



If the bond market is ready to move higher, which it looks like it will, then equities will fall...

tb

1.09.2010

Financials on the move; sorta...







You can ride the financial move higher, but know that volatility will soon return...

tb

1.06.2010

Solar stocks on the move; well sorta...



bullish chart pattern with price...
bearish chart pattern with macd...

tb

1.02.2010

Looking for inspiration?

Rent the movie: Emmanuels Gift.

It's about a young man, born with disabilities, and his persistant effort to change the perceptions of the people of Ghana, West Africa.

tb

1.01.2010

VXX Chart...



The volume peak suggests a bottom.. now, there could be one final low coming, to about $30ish, albeit on lower volume, but that is going to be the last buying opportunity...

tb