4.25.2008

S&P near "flat" for the year...



Last year, the market ran up to 8%, then back to 0%, back to 8% up, then back to 0%, before finishing up 8% by year end..

At the 8% top for the year, I recall the commentators announcing, "the market is having a fantastic year, up 8% for the year!"..Almost on a dime, the market pulled back to 0% within the next few months..

And as expected, when the market was near 0%, the commentators announced, "Ugg, the market has given all its gains back, we are flat for the year!".

So, this year, we were down ~20% in January, and now have climbed are way back to 0% for the year..

Within a few weeks, those same commentators will most likely announce, "The S&P 500 is up 0-1% for the year! Amazing Run!". I think that's right around the time the market will look for the exits.. Having said that, I think just a correction is due...

With rate cuts coming to an end, a rising dollar is expected... Commodities should fall in sympathy... And companies with international exposure will have "head winds" from the rising dollar.

tb

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