10.10.2008

Next week: Options week

Two weeks ago I reflected on this past years market behavior during options week, and while I could have never anticipated this type of a fall, I was anticipating some flat to down movement in the markets before options week. My theory from prior options month's, is that whatever has been the general trend for the past several weeks in the market (or a given sector), will reverse direction in a big way, during options week.

Why did I sell my AAPL Oct 100 puts, which I paid 0.55, for $2.35!
Why did I sell my OCT X 120 puts in august, when they have EXPLODED to over $60 (from a $1 purchase back in June)!
Man, I called that GOOG short, anticipating that $400 would not hold, but I completely missed the opportunity to buy the OCT 300 puts when they were cheap..


Ok, Ok, I digress...That said, next week is options week, and I believe that next week, stocks will appear to be "cheap", and buyers will move in, and prices will move up 30-40% during the week. It's possible that it may all happen on a single day, like next friday, but, I believe there will be opportunities to buy OCT call options that will move from a nickle to $10 even $20 bucks.

Fortunes have already been made for those who have been short...If you flip the market charts upside down, you see a market going straight up, so I think you would be foolish to keep holding your position, knowing a snap-back reaction is near.





Possible market movers..

INTC reports after close on Tue.
GOOG reports on Thur.
WFC reports on Wed.
C reports on Thur.

tb

PS-This strategy is not for everyone...your call options can go to $0.