9.25.2010

DOW Chart...


  • The last 3% of a move in the market usually moves the fastest
  • Stocks at 52 week highs will move higher near end of Qtr, due to window dressing
  • We have been range bound from 9800 to 11k
  • The 200 weekly MA acts as resistance, we are approaching that MA here
  • Historical bearish October month nearing
Bullish case:
Window dressing, easiest time to trade, find 52 weeks high stocks and buy them for quick profits. End of market move moves the fastest, so as we continue higher, just adds to confirmation of move.

Bearish case:
We are approaching top end of range, and end of september, which means, the worst month for bulls is right around the corner. Until the market tells you otherwise, assume selloff from 11k.

Conspiracy Theorist case:
We don't sell off in October, but do pullback 2% quickly, to get traders to jump on the bearish bandwagon, and then proceed higher to 12k, before we selloff sometime near the end of October.

tb

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