I expected to see a relief rally in XLF, and we finally got one today. Thanks to the USO scareoff, I mean, selloff that hapened right after the spike to 107. While the impulse move up in the USO was a surprise, I checked the gaps, and thought, hmm, the USO just filled the gap, in dramatic fashion, thats all... and sure enough, that was it, and the selloff began...
The fast money "expert" kept pounding the table to ride USO higher, you can easily draw a crayon to find support... Well, the contrarian in me, said its not "that" easy... And went short.. See how easy that is? When they pound the table how easy it is, be a skeptic...
Oh, the same goes for those puts in the financials... "lots of puts in the financials" they said.. well, sure, when XLF was at 27, sure.. but down here at 24? Nope.. I fade that noise too...
I was in some GS from a few days ago, and took profits today... Should have played MA instead... I think we could still find 23 in the XLF, but I will wait and see..
What I am watching now, is the XLE.. I expected some consolidation this week, and while the volatility has been amazing in XLE, its just moved sideways this week, with big up/down swings... Are we going to break down further back to 75, or bounce back to test the old highs? I am watching/waiting..
As for the solars, they pulled back nicely this week.. as goes the USO, so goes the solars... that trend has not changed...
tb
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