Over the weekend, I will add 3 sections to the right hand side... BUY, SELL, and WATCH... I need to do this, if only as a reminder to myself..I will show the timeframe you should hold the stock for, and/or the price to get in/out at, along with a stop out price... I may put in my general market status' too.. ie., short term bearish, long term bullish..we'll see..
and now, for some thought blogging...
I nailed the XLE top, when I saw the stock in the 90's...Stocks react to even numbers all the time...Once I saw the pattern, I had to post it, and act.. What I didn't do so well, was I predicted a drop to 87ish, then some consolidation, before a run to 95. So, once it dropped to 87, even though I saw a gap at 86, I covered at 87.. Woohoo.. BUT, jeez, XLE was JUST started its descent.. I should have given the trade more time. It was the trading, not the $$ that bothered me...
Also, I caught my eye on US STEEL (X), which I have watched for years.. forget TA, this stock just runs from March to May/June every year... When it broke out at 120, I should have bought and held until May. Anyway, now it topped at 180, which I posted here 2 days ago. The upper trend line was clear as day (to me). I got in at $179, and covered this morning in the 160's. Nice! The too much too fast theory applied... I will post more on X this weekend..
As for the SPY, I charted the SPY, thinking we had a double top that formed this past week. But then the SPY had a (false) breakout, to fill the gap just a % higher, and once that was filled, the market started to fall.. I ignored the fact that a false breakout was unfolding, and looked for stocks to buy, that haven't moved yet.. Never forget, "as goes the market, so goes the stock price".. In other words, trade in the direction of the market... That said, my HOC buy recommendation, while long term seems promising (based on charts), would also correct with the market... Oh, and my WYNN, LVS buys, same deal, I shouldn't recommend buys during a potential correction...
And last but not least, I posted all the solar stocks that were up 40% in a week.. You know the names, CSIQ, SOLF, ENER, etc..This was during options expiration... While I was creating the post, I thought, this feels just like the china stocks that all were up crazy percentages at the same time back in October... Hey, this may be a great time to go short!? ... of course, I didn't pull the trigger, I was looking to BUY...I am not sure what is worse, not trading an idea that you think has a good risk/reward, or trying an idea and getting stopped out for a loss.. I think the former is worse..
Oh, and I wanted to mention, that I've started browsing other blogs, tk, f8, beanie, z's... And I picked up on a few comments this past week, which I think were interesting (to me).. Start with Tk's blog... As you know, he is bearish by nature.. So, when he posted that he is only blogging once a day, instead of intraday posts, I thought, man, this may be the top, which I posted here.. And by the same token, beanie's site was showing anyone and everyone making lots of $$, buying penny stocks... again, I posted here, hey, aren't penny stocks the last to move, before the correction?
So, I had all the information I needed to short the market, yet, while I did short some (XLE, X), I could have made much more this past week...
If you haven't figured out by now, I am a contrarian at heart... Always looking for the other angle..
ok, for the 3 people who read this, I hope you enjoyed it. :)
UPDATE 5/24:
The penny stocks comment I refer to at beanies, was actually 1 person (not beanie) which caught my eye... I merely mention beanie's site, because I consider his site bullish...with a few short trades sprinkled in... On the other side, Tk's blog is bearish, with a dash of long trades sprinkled in... I chose to use these two sites to gauge market sentiment.. They are both excellent blogs to browse...
No disrespect to either blog.
tb
PS- A little stand up from Jerry Seinfeld
No comments:
Post a Comment