6.20.2008

Lessons Learned...

I posted just a few days ago, to get out of tech on rallies... Posted a chart in the sell section(to the right), and "magically", the Q's fell hard today... I say "magically" with sarcasm, as the charts indicated such a move..

And just recently, I posted a nice consolidating chart on GOOG... It looked like at any moment it could break out..(bias to the upside). I tried to jump in on a pullback from yesterday, while the Q's were falling.. Well, that didn't work out so well today, as I got out for a quick loss.. Will GOOG go higher? Eventually, but its not a good idea to fight the sector direction...In hindsight, I should avoid posting/thinking about "buying opportunities" when I think a sector is about to fall... Better to swim in the same direction as the current..

Rules I (try) to follow:

Rule #1 - Identify which direction the market is trading..

Rule #2 - Find the strongest/weakest stock in the sector, to buy/sell, and determine support/resistance areas...

Rule #3 - Have a plan for entry price, exit price, and target price..

Rule #4 - Taking a small loss is better than "hold and hope".. you can always get back in..

Rule #5 - If the market is too difficult to trade, stay away... paper trade if you must, but sit on your hands...

Rule #6 - Believe in the old saying, "Sell in May and go away", until the market proves otherwise...

Rule #7 - man, so many rules! just one more on my mind.. ;)

Rule #8 - pay attention to the month/quarter we are in.. this past month, felt like an end of year "window dressing", where all stocks that were near 52 weeks highs, continued higher.. And all the stocks near 52 week lows, continued lower.. those in between have mixed results.. Had you just kept buying POT, MOS, MON, and shorted, LEH, BAC, C, you would have done quite well this past few weeks/months..

Rule #9 - if you must hold positions, buying insurance is a good idea, especially after a nice run..(ie., buy puts against the stocks/calls you are holding).

Rule #10 - keep at it, because in the end, it's always about fear and greed..

tb

No comments: